Brian Gardner is a former Capitol Hill staffer whose former roles include working for the House Financial Services Committee. He guided his career to bank regulatory law at a New York firm, representing international banks. Gardner joined Stifel Financial Corp. during COVID, expanding its coverage to multiple sectors.
In a recent interview with Travillian’s Head of Bank Strategy, Michael Perito, Gardner shared his observations on the 2024 Presidential election and its various implications.
Current Status of the Presidential Race
Gardner begins by assessing the current status of the run for the White House.
The past three months of the Trump-Harris race, he observes, have been unusually turbulent, marked by:
- The Biden-Trump debate
- Harris’ candidacy replacement for Biden
- Two Trump assassination attempts
- The high-stakes, Harris-Trump debate
The Fleeting Nature of News Cycles for the Current Election
Despite these dramatic events, Gardner suggests they have had surprisingly little lasting impact.
“The news cycle is very short,” he explains, noting that even major events quickly fade from public consciousness. For instance, the fact that Trump was shot during a campaign stop didn’t even surface during the recent debate, showing how fast these moments are overshadowed by new developments.
Gardner advises caution when interpreting any one event as a game changer. “Be careful about taking a specific event and saying, ‘This is it,’ because in another week, we’re probably going to be talking about something else,” he notes.
Shifting Outcomes
Trump vs. Harris: A Tight Race with No Clear Front-Runner
The Trump-Harris race is shaping up to be a close battle, with neither side holding a decisive lead. Gardner reports that while Harris saw a surge in support after entering the race and debating Trump once, her slight polling advantage over him is far from secure.
Despite Harris’ lead, Gardner cautions that the former President cannot be discounted. “Donald Trump is outperforming where he was in the past two elections,” Gardner says. In addition, Trump’s historical strength in key battleground states—where polls have often underestimated his support—presents a significant challenge for Harris.
Ultimately, the race remains a near coin flip, with the outcome likely hinging on just a few battleground states.
The 2024 Presidential Candidates’ Impact on Banks
Donald Trump and Banking Policy
A Trump victory is often viewed as favorable for the banking industry, owing to his pro-business stance. But the resultant benefits may not be as clear-cut as some expect.
Gardner points out that while Trump’s 2017 corporate tax cuts were a boon for banks, further reductions might face resistance in a divided Congress.
Trump’s past presidency also saw lighter regulatory burdens on banks, especially with the tailoring of Dodd-Frank rules, which benefitted larger regional and community banks. Gardner suggests that a second Trump administration could follow a similar regulatory path, although it might lean more populist in other areas of governance, such as law enforcement and national security.
Kamala Harris and Banking Regulation
Harris, in contrast, presents a less defined approach to banking regulation. While she has some history with the industry—particularly from her time as California’s attorney general—Gardner notes that her fluctuating positions and staff turnover make it difficult to predict her regulatory stance. Gardner sees the potential for more progressive appointees under a Harris administration, but he notes a lack of clarity on how they would influence bank regulation.
Presidential Election Results and What Banks Need to Know
The debate over banking regulation also extends to the FDIC’s recent proposals that include reconsideration of broker deposit rules.
Gardner points out that while the FDIC under Chairman Gruenberg is moving in a different direction, some voices within the agency, like Vice Chairman Travis Hill, argue that broker deposits may be stickier and less risky than conventional wisdom suggests.
Gardner concludes by emphasizing the importance of effective lobbying from the banking industry. He advises banks, particularly community institutions, to engage with their local members of Congress, telling their stories through the lens of customers to ensure their concerns are heard.
The 2024 election is in full swing, and the latest insights from policy strategist Brian Gardner offer a glimpse into what bankers need to know about the election.
